Take a Chance on Me...

This Thursday will be the NFL Draft and the Indianapolis Colts have the #1 overall selection.  They have already come out and stated Stanford QB Andrew Luck will be their choice.  He is considered by draft experts to be the best overall prospect at QB since John Elway.  He has all the physical tools and mental make-up to be a extremely successful player in this league.  Or does he?  The "science" of evaluating players and projecting their future success has been to this point a 50/50 proposition at best. 

This has been especially evident in the first round of the draft over the past number of years.  General managers go over each player with a fine toothed comb and leave no stone unturned to gain as much information in order to insure draft success.  When you are investing millions of dollars in a player you have to do your due diligence. 

The problem even when interviewing, evaluating, and watching players during their years in college is you still have busts.  It is going to happen the same as the sun will rise tomorrow.  I am sure Andrew Luck will be a fabulous quarterback and the experts are going to be right on so many levels.  I do want to reminisce a bit and think back at NFL Drafts of the last few years and see if they were dead on in their evaluations. 

In 2005 the top two quarterbacks were Alex Smith from Utah and Aaron Rogers from California.  The following are evals from ESPN.com describing each of them. 

"Alex Smith:  There isn't a lot that separates Aaron Rodgers from Alex Smith. Rodgers has the better arm, but Smith has the bigger frame. What it ultimately came down to was that new 49ers coach Mike Nolan fell in love with Smith's intelligence, charisma and overall intangibles -- and who can blame him?"

"Aaron Rodgers:  Rodgers was talked about as a potential No. 1 overall selection, but some bad luck and some concerns about his throwing motion and ability to adjust to NFL offenses sent him sliding. Nevertheless, there are worse places to land than as Brett Favre's understudy."

Alex Smith was taken with the #1 overall selection and Aaron Rodgers was selected 24th overall.  That means 23 other teams had the potential to take a chance on Rodgers and decided to pass.  This could be that they had a QB already or they felt the same regarding his throwing motion.  Who knows?  This just shows you really don't know what a player will be in 1 year, 2 years, or 5 years.  That word potential is a bad word at times. 

Some GM's would say potential gets people fired.  

In 2007 this was never more evident than in the draft pick of JaMarcus Russell out of LSU.  He was to be the next big prospect with a "powerful" arm and athleticism.  He shot up draft boards all the way to #1.  He had potential out the yin yang.  His eval from ESPN.com went as follows:

"Russell is the obvious pick for the Raiders because he fills a pressing need and has the most value at the position. Although he needs to continue to improve his decision making and work on his footwork, he has rare size and arm strength. If Lane Kiffin can get Russell to buy into his system, the sky is the limit for Russell and the Raiders."

In analyzing this it stated, "he needs to improve his decision making...footwork."  These are two of the most important aspects to being a quarterback as they have the ball in their hands on every play.  I have said before this is a quarterbacks league.  This is why a franchise like Oakland will look past this glaring weakness and only focus on the potential in his, "rare size and arm strength."  If I had a dime for every quarterback who has arm strength I would be a rich man.  Football scouts love the quintessential quarterback who is 6'5'' and looks like an Abercrombe model.  It takes more than just physical talent to make it and this is what makes the draft so hard to figure out.

Intangibles.  This is what separates the elite quarterbacks from those who flame out and are now either playing for the arena league, CFL, or bagging groceries.  In 1998 Peyton Manning had it, Ryan Leaf didn't.  In 1999 Tim Couch didn't have it as the #1 overall selection but in 2000 Tom Brady did at pick #199.  It is an unmeasurable entity that is hard to define but when you see it on the field it hits you like a ton of bricks.  The game comes naturally to them and the action seems to be in slow motion.  They have an air of confidence that no matter what comes at them they will have the answer.  It is within them.  They are able to be leaders of men into battle without anyone questioning your ability or their heart. 

This more than any physical ability is what draft gurus are truly seeking.  It just isn't easy.

So this Thursday we know for certain with the first pick Luck will be on the Colts side.

We just don't know HOW lucky and neither does anyone else.